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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2020–Jan 17th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Columbia.

Pay attention to wind affected snow in open terrain where triggering avalanches is possible.

Confidence

High - The number, quality, or consistency of field observations is good, and supports our confidence.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Scattered flurries with up to 5 cm of snow, moderate wind from the southwest, alpine temperatures drop to -16 C.

FRIDAY: Light flurries with some sunny breaks, light wind from the southwest, alpine high temperatures around -14 C.

SATURDAY: Scattered flurries with 5-10 cm of snow, moderate wind from the south, alpine high temperatures around -12 C.

SUNDAY: Light flurries with 5-15 cm of snow, moderate to strong wind from the south, alpine high temperatures around -8 C.

Avalanche Summary

Recent weather has refreshed the wind slab problem on north and east lee features. Activity over the past few days has been limited to just a few small (size 1) wind slab avalanches on a variety of aspects. Last weekend there were a few notable reports of large persistent slab avalanches in the Selkirks and the northern tip of the Monashees (near Blue River and Valemount). The avalanches failed on a 100 cm deep surface hoar layer on north and east aspects between elevations of 1200 to 2100 m. Observations suggest this layer has trended towards being less reactive under the current conditions.

Snowpack Summary

Fresh wind slabs can be found in open terrain, while soft powder exists in sheltered terrain. A layer of surface hoar is now buried 80-150 cm below the surface and could still be a concern in certain parts of the Selkriks and the northern end of the Monashees. A facet/crust layer from late November lingers near the bottom of the snowpack and has occasionally been reactive in isolated shallow snowpack areas.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.