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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 31st, 2021–Jan 1st, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

South Coast.

Continue to choose riding areas sheltered from the wind, and you'll keep finding cold, dry powder. Be cautious around steep terrain and convex rolls. The recent, cold snow is settling slowly. Winds will increase and shift to the Southwest on Saturday.

Confidence

Moderate - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

The weekend weather is looking quite wild, starting with wind on Saturday, and heavy snowfall that night and through Sunday.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Light to moderate northwest wind. Treeline low around -11 C.

SATURDAY: Overcast. 1-4 cm of snow expected. Strong southwest wind, trending to extreme west at higher elevations. Treeline temperature rising to around -7 C. 

SUNDAY: Overcast. 15-30 cm of snow expected overnight, with another 30-60 cm through the day. Extreme southwest winds. Freezing level rising to 500 m.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. 15-25 cm overnight and another 10-20 through the day. Strong southwest winds. Freezing level around 400 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, this great Mountain Information Network (MIN) post reported small natural and rider triggered avalanches in the snow that fell overnight on Wednesday. A professional operation also reported a similar cycle of loose dry avalanches that propagated further, up to 50 m.

This natural reactivity seemed to be short lived, but if you find a feature with slabbier snow, or above a terrain trap, this could be a bigger problem, so continually evaluate the conditions as you travel.

No new avalanches were reported on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

Recent northwesterly winds have created wind slabs in atypical cross-loading and reverse loading patterns, but the winds today switch back to southwest, likely building new wind slabs in a more standard pattern of north through west facing slopes. 

Cold temperatures have encouraged some near surface facetting, discouraging the loose snow from settling and consolidating, and starting to soften some of the older windslabs. 

This Mountain Information Network (MIN) post paints a great picture of conditions on Thursday in areas accessed by the Sea to Sky Gondola.

These recent wind slabs or low density snow sit above a mostly settled and bonded snowpack with a few crusts in the top 100 cm. 

Higher terrain around Squamish may have a lingering weak layer of facets above a crust that formed in early December. This layer is now 150-200 cm deep and has likely transitioned from stubborn to unreactive.

Terrain and Travel

  • Approach steep, open and/or sparsely treed slopes cautiously.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Caution around convexities or sharp changes in terrain.
  • Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.