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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 31st, 2021–Jan 1st, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Watch for fresh wind slab formation if you notice the wind pick up. Check out the latest Forecaster Blog for tips on managing the persistent slab problem in this region.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

Friday night: Clear. Light northwest wind. Alpine temperature around -27 C.

Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud. Moderate northwest wind. Alpine high around -18 C.

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud with flurries starting in the afternoon. Strong southwest wind. High of -10.

Monday: 5-10 cm new snow. Moderate southwest wind. High of -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

Wind slabs were touchy on Thursday when natural and remotely triggered size 2 wind slab avalanches were reported on easterly aspects at alpine and treeline elevations.

Explosive control work on Wednesday produced numerous size 3 wind slab avalanches in the alpine on primarily northwest aspects.

Snowpack Summary

Recent winds have created fresh wind slabs on lee features at treeline and above.

The most notable layer of concern in the snowpack is a crust that was formed in early December and is now down 50-120 cm. Activity on this layer has been sporadic. It has generally been triggered on steep, rocky slopes, with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.

This layer has created a low likelihood, high consequence scenario which is best managed through conservative terrain choices and disciplined backcountry travel techniques.

Terrain and Travel

  • Pay attention to the wind, once it starts to blow fresh sensitive wind slabs are likely to form.
  • Seek out wind sheltered terrain below treeline where you can avoid wind slabs and find great riding.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.