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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2022–Jan 14th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

High elevations hold dry snow seeing warming for the first time, most concerning in southern areas. Watch for signs of instability, moist surface snow and new natural avalanches. 

Avoid large unsupported slopes, deeply buried weak layers remain a concern. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels continue to change rapidly in the wake of the storm, reaching peak elevations on Friday and likely again on Sunday.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated flurries with light southwest winds. Freezing levels range over the region from around 1500m in the north to nearly 2500 m in the south, as elevated warm air moves through. 

FRIDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with moderate to strong southwest winds and a chance of flurries. Freezing levels are once again hard to forecast. Southern areas should expect freezing levels up to 3000 m. Northern areas are likely to stay below 1700 m with a chance of a warm air bubble moving through raising temperatures to 2500m. 

SATURDAY: Freezing levels fall overnight and remain below 1500 m. A mix of sun and cloud with no precipitation expected. Moderate winds from the west. 

SUNDAY: Freezing levels rise around 2000m. A mix of sun and cloud, with increasing southwest winds.

Avalanche Summary

Rain and warm temperatures produced a natural avalanche cycles to size 2.5 at treeline and below. 

At upper elevations, several storm slabs were triggered by skiers and riders to size 2 in steep terrain. Explosive control near Pemberton produced size 3 and one size 4 storm slab, up to 1.5 m deep.

Snowpack Summary

Mixed precipitation and warm temperatures over the last week has created a variety of surface snow conditions. Strong southwest winds have created pockets of dry snow at alpine elevations on north through east facing slopes. 

Precipitation fell as wet snow or rain below 2000m, creating saturated upper snowpack that has now formed a melt freeze crust with moist snow below. 

Two buried weak layers of sugary, faceted grains sit in the middle and lower snowpack, around 50cm deep and 80-200 cm deep. Early Decembers heavy rain and following cold spell formed the deeper layer of facets, that is now most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. Avalanches on this layer are large, but sporadic and isolated. The most likely place to trigger it would be in thin, rocky snowpack areas. The lower snowpack is well-settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a deep persistent slab.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.