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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 24th, 2022–Jan 25th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Sustained warm temperatures and sun are forecast to continue this week. Large cornices are likely weakening and loose wet avalanches become increasingly likely as the surface crust breaks down, especially on steep sun exposed slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

The region now sits under a warm ridge of high pressure which is expected to persist through the week bringing high freezing levels and sun.

Monday night: Clear, light NW wind, freezing levels 2000-2400 m.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud, light NW wind, freezing levels around 2400 m.

Wednesday: Sunny, light NW wind, freezing levels around 2500 m.

Thursday: Sunny, light SW wind, freezing levels around 2600 m. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity has been reported over the last few days. Last Thursday, glide cracks were reported to be growing in size, likely from the persistent warm temperatures and rain event. 

If you head out into the mountains, please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

The warm temperatures are slowly starting to melt a thick crust that reaches to mountain top. Below the crust, the snow is moist down 50-100 cm where several old crust are now breaking down. At the highest elevations around Squamish, you may find up to 15 cm of new snow from the recent storm. 

Around 150 to 200 cm deep, weak faceted grains may sit above a melt freeze crust that formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack has been bonding well to these layers. The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
  • Even small cornices may have enough mass to be destructive and deadly.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.