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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2022–Jan 13th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Thursday is still a good time for conservative terrain choices.

Avoid exposure to the runouts of avalanche paths that have not previously avalanched.

Weather Forecast

A warm, wet storm will move through tonight, bringing moderate snowfall amounts.

Tonight: Flurries, 8cm, Alp low -2*C, mod/strong SW winds

Thurs: Cloudy with flurries, Alp high -2*C, fzl rising to 1600m, light/mod W winds

Fri: Mainly cloudy, Alp high -1*C, fzl 1200m, light SW winds

Snowpack Summary

New storm slabs have formed in the ~30 cm of storm snow, with warm temps and mod/strong SW winds. These have buried a Jan 11 surface hoar layer observed up to 4-6 mm. Below this a mix of low density snow/faceted crystals.

The Dec 1 crust (now buried up to 2m deep) remains dormant, despite having weak, sugary, faceted snow above and below it.

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanche activity observed on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, we had natural and artillery controlled avalanches up to size 3.5, reaching end of runouts with lrg dust components. These avalanches were mostly failing in the storm snow. A few deeper slabs were observed east of Rogers pass at TL ele, likely failing on the Jan 1 FC interface.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.