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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 21st, 2022–Jan 22nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Rockies.

Warm temperatures may create tricky conditions this weekend. Although the region is not included in the avalanche warning, deeper layers in the snowpack may become active. Approach the mountains cautiously, with your eyes open, and maybe even expect surprises.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Warm weather with minimal overnight cooling at treeline elevations. Strong gusting to extreme west wind, overnight low of -3, freezing level 1000 m.

SATURDAY: Warm with a mix of sun and clouds, strong wind from the west, high temperatures reaching +3 C as freezing level climbs to near 2000 m in the afternoon.

SUNDAY: Little overnight cooling at higher elevations, increasing cloud through day. Strong wind from the west, more cloud than sun, freezing level between 1500 and 2000m.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Decreasing moderate northwest wind, temperatures dropping to -5, and freezing level dropping to valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

Small (size 1-1.5) storm slab and loose dry avalanches avalanches were reported late Thursday with new snow and wind, particularly where more than 30 cm of snow accumulated and wind exceeded 25 km / hr.

A reactive snowpack may persist through the weekend as warm temperatures weaken the snowpack and test upper and mid snowpack layers.

Snowpack Summary

Strong westerly winds have impacted 20-40 cm recent storm snow in open areas at treeline and throughout the alpine. Gusty winds may have loaded terrain further downslope than usual.

The lower snowpack is generally strong and bonded, with one or multiple crusts near the ground. We suspect the lower snowpack could be weak in shallow rocky wind-affected slopes east of the divide.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and sun exposure.
  • In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.