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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2022–Jan 3rd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Stay away from steep terrain traps. Careful snowpack evaluation and conservative decisions are prudent until Saturday night's 100km/hr wind impacts can be assessed. Expect to find hard wind slabs in unusual locations.

Weather Forecast

Monday will be clouds with flurries, some sun, -10C, and light winds gusting 35km/hr. Tuesday will be similar, -19C, and light winds. Wednesday is a mix of sun and cloud, no new snow, -21C, and light winds. Thursday could be cloudy, flurries, 4cm of snow, -21C, and light winds.

Snowpack Summary

Cold temps penetrated deep into the upper snowpack promoting faceting. Wind slab pockets are present on all aspects, tree line and above especially after 100km/hr winds Saturday night. The mid-pack is supportive with the Dec 1st interface down 40cm in most locations. Basal faceting continues below the Nov 5 crust about 15cm up from the ground.

Avalanche Summary

There was no patrol on Sunday. Jan 1 Greg reports on MIN some small naturals on the upper Churchill slabs. Saturday's explosive control on Medicine Slabs produced loose dry and fast moving facet avalanches to the road from steep treeline terrain. Friday's Maligne patrol noted several loose dry size 1.5 running far on a previous hard surface.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations on Monday

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.