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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2022–Feb 1st, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Avoid terrain traps and other terrain features that could make being caught in a small avalanche more consequential. Wind slabs will likely be limited in size but reactive due to the surfaces they have formed on.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Monday night: light flurries with moderate northwest winds. Low of -15 at 1600m.

Tuesday: light flurries throughout the day. Light to moderate southeast winds with a high of -14 at 1600m.

Wednesday: up to 5cm of new snow with moderate west winds. High of -12 at 1600m.

Thursday: 5 to 15cm of snow with moderate to strong southwest winds. High of -10 at 1600m.

Avalanche Summary

A few skier triggered size 2 avalanches were reported on Sunday. These avalanches were thin wind slabs in alpine terrain on east aspects. See the MIN linked here to read more and view photos. Thanks to the skier that provided this information.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15cm has fallen over a variety of surfaces including facets, surface hoar and old wind slab. The new snow will likely not bond well to these surfaces. In the southern part of the region it is possible to find a rain crust up to 1500m.

Below this we have two persistent weak layers, the first is a surface hoar layer from mid January buried down 20 to 30cm. The second is a layer of facets from early January which is now down 50 to 80cm, it has been most reactive where wind slab has formed above it and will now likely require a large load to trigger.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid terrain traps where the consequence of any avalanche could be serious.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.