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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 8th, 2022–Jan 9th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Freezing level rising and temperature warming will increase the avalanche danger thoughout the day. Large cornices may become weak and easy to trigger.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

The freezing levels will rise significantly to over 2000 metres on Sunday but with no precipitation forecast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with scattered flurries, accumulation 3 to 5 cm, 30 to 50 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -7 C with freezing level at valley bottom.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods, no precipitation, 20-40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature rising to 0 C with freezing level up to 2000 m.

MONDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, 30-50 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -3 C with freezing level around 1000 m.

TUESDAY: Snow, heavy at times, accumulatin 30 to 40 cm, 40-60 km/h south wind, alpine temperature -2 C with freezing level at 1700 m.

Avalanche Summary

Many storm and wind slab avalanches were triggered naturally, by riders, and explosives on Friday. The slabs were generally 30 to 40 cm thick, with the most reactive slabs found in lee terrain features. 

Snowpack Summary

New snow in the last few days (20-30 cm) have formed wind slabs in lee terrain features due to strong southerly wind. Storm slabs may still exist in terrain sheltered from the wind. Below about 1200 m in parts of the region close to the coast, the precipitation fell as rain, producing a hard melt-freeze crust. This recent precipitation adds to the 100+ cm of snow that has fallen since January 1, which may overly sugary faceted grains that formed during the cold spell in late December.

Around 150 to 250 cm deep, a weak layer of faceted grains may be found above a melt-freeze crust that formed in early December. The layer is most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. Observed avalanches on this layer are rather rare and intermittent, suggesting that this layer has become dormant. The most likely place to trigger it would be in thin, rocky snowpack areas.

The lower snowpack is well-settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.