Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 29th, 2022–Dec 30th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary, Bonnington, Grohman, Kootenay Pass, Norns, Rossland, South Okanagan, Ymir, Moyie, St. Mary.

Keep it simple for now, patience is required as a warm and wet snowpack needs time to cool and bond. Seek simple terrain to assess the snowpack prior to beginning your journey into more challenging zones.

New snowfall and wind will continue to add weight to a weak snowpack where buried weak layers are primed for human triggering.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday has been action packed with many professional operations reporting that a natural avalanche cycle was occurring. Both persistent and storm slab avalanche were reported as large to very large (size 2.5 to 3).

On Wednesday numerous skier remotely triggered, skier controlled and explosives controlled avalanches have been reported from small to very large (size 1 to 2.5). The continued testing with significant results provides evidence that the snowpack continues to be reactive to light traffic such as skiers.

Further evidence of cracking and settling of the warm and moist upper snowpack provided good evidence of the new storm snow instability.

Explosives work conducted on Monday and Tuesday produced some large (size 2) avalanches that gained mass with the available moist snow.

On Sunday. In the alpine numerous remotely trigger very large avalanches (size 2.5) have been reported. These were described as failing on the December 22nd facet interface/ Persistent weak layer on north east aspects with crown depths averaging 40 cm and gaining significant mass and running far, upwards of 400 meters in length.

Read about their decision making after triggering the first avalanche here.

Snowpack Summary

Tuesday and Wednesday storm snow totals of 16 to 20 cm continued to bury a thin melt freeze crust that formed and it can now be found down 40 cm. Wind and storm slabs have accumulated over layers of either facets, surface hoar or a crust. Strong westerly winds have been redistributing snow into wind loaded features in treeline and alpine terrain.

The snowpack is complex with several deeper instabilities that may persist through the season, and sustained past cold temperatures that had continued to facet (weaken) the snowpack. Layers of concern in this snowpack:

  • A melt freeze buried December 26 that is suspected to be found on all aspects and elevations below 2000 m. This layer can be found down 40 cm.

  • An early December layer of surface hoar in sheltered areas and a thin sun crust in open south-facing terrain is buried approximately 60-75 cm deep. This layer has recently produced surprising avalanches in upper treeline and lower alpine terrain features.

  • The most concerning layer buried in mid November is made up of large surface hoar crystals, facets, and a melt-freeze crust and can be found up to 70 to 120 cm deep. This layer has been reactive at treeline between 1700 to 2200 m, on all aspects.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Cloudy, snowfall very light; 2 to 4 cm. Moderate south wind 30 to 40 km/h. Freezing levels will maintain around 500 m Alpine temperature high of -4°C

Friday

Cloudy, snowfall; light 1 to 5 cm. Moderate southwest winds 20 to 30 km/h. Freezing levels rising mid day to near 700 m. Alpine temperature high of -2°C.

Saturday

Cloudy, snowfall; very light 1 to 2 cm. Moderate northwest winds 30 to 40 km/h. Freezing level rising mid day to 600 m. Alpine high temperatures -2°C.

Sunday

Beginning to clear, snowfall; very light trace amounts possible. Light southwest winds 20 to 30 km/h. Freezing levels 200 m. Alpine temperatures -6°C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.