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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 18th, 2022–Dec 19th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Watch for signs of instability and have a dig to see if the persistent slab problem exists in your location.

Cold temperatures and short daylight hours could turn even a small incident into a serious emergency. Bring extra warm layers and be back well before sunset.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Reports of small human-triggered avalanches, size 0.5 on unsupported pillows and rolls, failing on the Nov 17 layer.

Isolated natural sluffs and small avalanches up to size 1.5 were observed out of steep terrain on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10cm now buries the Dec 16 surface hoar (up to 10mm at tree line and below) and a crust on solar aspects.

The snowpack is thin (~110cm at 2000m) and generally facetted. The Dec 5 and Nov 17 surface hoar layers are down ~40cm and ~70cm respectively and have produced sudden results in snowpack tests.

Weather Summary

Alpine high of -27... enough said?

Monday will be cold with mainly sunny skies with light winds.

Temps will start gradually warming at the end of the week with a slight possibility of 10-15cm of snow next weekend.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Exercise caution on steep, unsupported slopes.
  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.