Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Saturday: Clear skies / light to moderate southwest winds / freezing level at 2000m Sunday: Light precipitation / strong southwesterly winds / freezing level at about 2800m Monday: light precipitation / strong southwest winds / freezing level at about 2800m
Avalanche Summary
Over the last few days, mostly loose wet avalanches to size 2 were reported in steep, sun-exposed terrain. Watch for continued wind slab activity as a result of Thursday night's storm as well as wet avalanche activity with warming forecast for the weekend.
Snowpack Summary
On Thursday night significant windslabs formed at higher elevations and now overlie light to locally moderate amounts of well-settled, temperature-affected snow that fell over the last week. Below the recent snow, spring weather has left us with a crust or wet grains at treeline and above while rain has continued to penetrate and weaken the isothermal snowpack at lower elevations. The mid-February buried surface hoar layer is down about 140-220 cm. The likelihood of avalanches failing on this layer has been very low due to cooler temperatures, however it may wake up with warming and the consequence continues to be very large destructive avalanches. Cornices in the region are very large and have may become weak with spring temperatures.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wet Slabs
Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.