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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2023–Jan 6th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Rider-triggered avalanches are still possible where the persistent weak layer is closer to the snow surface in shallow snowpack areas.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported in the area.

This rider triggered a small avalanche in an opening, as shown in this MIN. This confirms the persistent weak layer is still a player in the north of this region.

Snowpack Summary

Roughly 30 to 40 cm of snow accumulated over the past week has been redistributed by winds in open terrain features, while in sheltered areas soft snow can still be found. These layers sit over a hard melt-freeze crust that can be found up to treeline elevations formed by rain on December 26. This crust is more robust in the south of the region making human triggering of two weak layers deep in the snowpack more difficult.

In the north of our region where the melt-freeze crust is not as supportive, rider-triggered avalanches are still possible on these layers down 30 to 50 cm deep buried mid-December and an 80 to 90 cm deep layer buried mid-November. Triggering these layers is more likely in shallow, rocky terrain features.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, trace amounts of snow possible 10 to 20 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -4 °C.

Friday

Cloudy, trace new snow, 20 to 30 km/h southwest wind increasing through the day, treeline temperature -5 ºC.

Saturday

A mix of sun and clouds, trace new snow, 20 to 30 km/h southwest winds increasing overnight, treeline temperatures -5 ºC

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, 5 to 10 cm new snow, 20 to 30 km/h decreasing through the day, treeline temperatures -5 ºC

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.