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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2023–Jan 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Island.

6:30 AM Update: Storm slabs may rapidly form over the course of the day. Travel conservatively and assess the bond of the new snow.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Friday and Saturday, numerous, small, skier triggered wet loose avalanches were reported in steep terrain around treeline.

Snowpack Summary

New storm slabs will build over the day. Most rideable terrain was soaked by rain during the recent storm. The new snow may overly a crust between 1700 and 1000 m. Where dry snow remains, at very high elevations, there may be deep, reactive windslabs leftover from the strong to extreme south winds during the storm. In transitional elevations between dry and wet/freezing snow, moderate southeast winds Sunday morning may have formed thin, reactive windslabs over the new crust.

Snowpack depths at treeline are around 100 cm, tapering quickly with elevation. Although the snowpack in most forested areas below treeline remains below threshold depths for avalanches, many steep bluffs, cutbanks, and alpine features in the upper below treeline band are capable of producing avalanches.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Cloudy. 0-10 cm of snow expected. Snow/rain line around 1000 m. Moderate southeast wind trending to light by the morning.

Monday

Cloudy, 20 to 30 cm of snow. Light southwest wind, increasing to moderate through the day. Snow/rain line around 1000 m.

Tuesday

Possible clear periods overnight. Mostly cloudy through the day. 3 cm of snow expected. Moderate rain in the southwest of the region. Light south alpine winds becoming strong through the day. Freezing around 900m.

Wednesday

Cloudy morning, possible sunny afternoon. 0-10 cm of snow expected overnight, heavy rain in the southwest of the region. Strong south alpine winds becoming moderate northwest through the day.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Be careful to keep storm day fever from luring you out into bigger terrain features.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.