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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 15th, 2022–Apr 16th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Monitor surface conditions as you move through aspects and gain elevation. Watch for dense, wind affected snow at higher elevations and moist or wet surface snow if the sun starts to shine. 

Check out the new forecaster blog if you're considering big lines this weekend.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

A cool and unsettled flow will affect coastal regions into the weekend. Convective flurries are expected in isolated areas and may be heavy at times. 

FRIDAY NIGHT: Some cloud overnight with light easterly winds. Freezing levels drop to 500 m.

SATURDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with light easterly winds. Freezing levels rise to 1400 m. Isolated flurries are expected to bring trace amounts during the day, and around 5 cm overnight.

SUNDAY: Clouds clear in the afternoon with increasing southeasterly winds. Freezing levels rise to 1500 m. No snowfall is expected. 

MONDAY: Snow begins in the morning with 10-15 cm expected, freezing levels reach 1300 m. Strong southerly winds ease to moderate over the day with mostly cloudy skies. 

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, strong periods of sun triggered a cornice fall that produced a size 3 slab avalanche on a northeast slope around 1800 m. This avalanche failed on a deep weak layer within the snowpack, which is considered unlikely to occur from human or natural triggers at this time - except for large cornice falls. 

Sunshine also triggered loose avalanches to size 1.5 out of steep south facing features. Naturally triggered slab avalanches were reported on a north and east aspects around 1700 m. A rider triggered a size 1 slab avalanche on a south west aspect at 2100 m.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 30 cm of wind-affected snow sits above a crust or hard surfaces at higher elevations. Small wind slabs may be found at high elevations on south and west facing slopes from recent easterly winds. A melt freeze crust likely sits on the surface at lower elevations and on sun affected slopes. Periods of sun may soften or break down the crust throughout the day.

Various melt-freeze crusts exist in the upper to middle snowpack, which reports suggest are bonding well. The lower snowpack is considered strong and well settled at this time. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.