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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 7th, 2022–Apr 8th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

The weather pattern right now is dynamic and fast-changing, and we're unsure about how the snowpack will react. During times of uncertainty, lean on a conservative approach to terrain, a cautious mindset, and continually make observations as you travel. 

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain. Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

Thursday Night: Cloudy and rain 5-10 mm. WARM. Freezing levels are stationary near 3000 m but forecast to drop to 1500 m by mid-morning Friday. Ridgetop winds light to moderate from the southwest.

Friday: Cloudy. New snow 5 to 15 cm at upper elevations and light ridgetop wind from the southwest. Freezing levels drop to 1300 m by mid-day.

Saturday: Cloudy with sunny periods. New snow 5 cm and freezing levels 1200 m. Alpine temperatures near -10 C and ridgetop winds light from the northwest. 

Sunday: Mix of sun and cloud. Chance of flurries. Freezing level near 1000 m and alpine temperatures -5 C. Ridgetop winds light from the West.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, solar-induced natural wet loose avalanches were reported up to size 2, and a cornice fall triggered a size 2 wind slab on the slope below. 

On Tuesday, solar-induced dry loose and storm slab avalanches were reported up to size 2. 

On Monday, numerous natural and rider-triggered wind and storm slabs up to size 2 were reported. Some dry loose avalanches were also seen from steep terrain features up to size 1.  

Warm temperatures, rain and snow may trigger a natural avalanche cycle on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Moist snow surfaces exist up to 1700 m on most aspects and to ridgetop on solar slopes. This may extend to higher elevations by Friday morning.

Up to 25 cm of new storm snow fell at upper elevations. Moderate southwest wind will be redistributing the new storm snow in exposed high elevation terrain forming wind slabs and large cornices. The upper 60 cm of the snowpack consists of multiple buried crusts. 

The new snow brings 50-70 cm of snow above the late March melt-freeze crust and tapers rapidly at lower elevations. 

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Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.
  • Minimize overhead exposure; avalanches triggered by warming or cornice fall may be large and destructive.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.