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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 7th, 2022–Apr 8th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Overnight freezing level change, rain and snow leaves uncertainty over how the snowpack will react. 

During times of uncertainty lean on a conservative approach to terrain, cautious mindset and constantly make observations while you travel.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels. Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Freezing levels fall from 2500 m to around 1200 m by morning. Precipitation will fall mainly as rain and may transition to snow. 10-30 mm is expected, tapering off early morning. Strong southwest winds. 

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with continued snowfall of around 5 cm. Freezing levels remain around 1000 m. Moderate westerly winds. 

SATURDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Freezing levels around 800 m. Moderate westerly winds.

SUNDAY: Clearing skies with scattered flurries possible. Freezing levels remain below 1000 m. Light westerly winds. 

Avalanche Summary

High freezing levels and a mix of rain and snow overnight may produce a natural avalanche cycle. 

On Tuesday, widespread size 1 wet loose avalanches were observed in the afternoon. This MIN report describes a size 2.5 storm slab which had occurred during the storm and is visible from the highway. 

Observations are very limited this time of year. If you are getting out in the backcountry, please consider sharing your observations to the Mountain Information Network. 

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30 mm of precipitation overnight with falling freezing levels will create a mixed bag of conditions on Friday.

The lowest elevations will may hold wet surface snow or a crust from overnight rainfall. As elevation increases, precipitation will begin as rain and turn to snow. Up to 30 cm is possible at the highest elevations, which will likely be deposited into wind loaded features on north and east facing slopes by strong southwest winds over a new melt freeze crust. 

Another widespread and supportive crust is buried 50-90 cm deep, below recent settling storm snow. This crust has been previously reactive to human and natural triggers. 

The middle and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low-angle, well-supported terrain with no overhead hazard.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.