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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2021–Jan 16th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

The winds have redistributed the recent storm snow into windslabs well down into the terrain. Luckliy treeline and below has better skiing.

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. High -9. Wind W: 15-35 km/h

Sunday: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries.  Low -11, High -7. Wind W: 20 km/h gusting to 55 km/h.

Monday: A mix of sun and cloud.  Low -14 °C, High -9 °C. Mostly light ridge wind occasionally gusting to 35 km/h.

Snowpack Summary

January 13th brought upwards of 55cm of new snow in the region. It has settled to 20-30cm with mild temperatures with continued wind slab development. The alpine has had continued strong winds promoting wind effect, wind slab formation and cornice growth. The mid pack is supportive. Near the ground it is weak facets and depth hoar.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed since Wednesday. Wednesday's explosive control action had surprisingly little results. During and after Tuesday-Wednesdays' storm, a significant natural cycle up to size 3.5 was noted occurring mostly in the Alpine open features South through Westerly aspects.

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Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.