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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2021–Feb 2nd, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Expect to see reactive storm slab conditions, especially in wind loaded areas. Choose conservative terrain and avoid overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT - Flurries, 10-15 / moderate to strong southwest wind / alpine low temperature near -6 / freezing level 1000-1500 m and dropping back down to valley bottom overnight in most areas 

TUESDAY - Flurries, 5 cm / moderate southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -8

WEDNESDAY - Mainly sunny / light northwest wind / alpine high temperature near -9 

THURSDAY - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries / moderate to strong southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -6

Avalanche Summary

Reactive storm slabs are expected to be widespread on Tuesday, and human triggered avalanches are likely, especially in wind loaded areas.

At the time of publishing, there were a few reports of size 1-2 natural and explosives triggered avalanches near Pemberton on Monday.

There were several reports of size 1-1.5 natural and human triggered avalanches in the region on Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

The region has seen 30-60 cm of new snow over the past few days, with another 5 cm expected during the day on Tuesday. 

This 30-60 cm of fresh snow sits on a recently buried persistent weak layer that consists of facets at upper elevations, surface hoar in some sheltered areas, a melt-freeze crust below 1600 m, and a sun crust on south-facing slopes.

In the south, the underlying snowpack is well consolidated. In the north, a melt-freeze crust from early December may be found 100 to 200 cm deep. Recent reports suggest that this layer is gaining strength and it has been unreactive in recent weeks.

Terrain and Travel

  • Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low-angle, well-supported terrain with no overhead hazard.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.