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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 23rd, 2021–Jan 24th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Low hazard still requires good decision making, especially in committing terrain. Remain cautious around cornices, shallow rocky alpine slopes or terrain where a small sluff or a thin wind slab avalanche could have large consequences. 

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern; little change is expected for several days.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: A mix of cloudy and clear skies, light southwest wind, treeline temperatures around -14 C.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with sun breaks and isolated flurries, light southwest wind, treeline temperatures around -11 C.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with sun breaks and isolated flurries, light wind, treeline temperatures around -8 C.

TUESDAY: A mix of sun and clouds with isolated flurries, light wind, treeline temperatures around -10 C.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been observed. However, cornices are growing fragile with continued cold conditions faceting their bonds. Cornices represent a significant hazard underfoot when travelling along ridge crests as well as when they threaten slopes overhead.

Snowpack Summary

Alpine and upper treeline terrain is heavily wind affected with large regions of scoured surfaces, pockets of soft wind transported snow and pockets of hard wind slab in lee regions or ridge crests. A hard crust is found below 1900 m and increases in thickness with lower elevations. Surface hoar and near-surface faceting continues to develop with cold clear temperatures and is slowly softening these various hard surfaces and also weakening the bonds of cornices.  

A solid mid-pack sits above buried crust and facet layers near the bottom of the snowpack (150-200 cm deep). These deeper weaknesses are currently unreactive, but have periodically produced large avalanches in alpine terrain during intense storms.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
  • Small avalanches can have serious consequences in extreme terrain. Carefully evaluate your line for wind slab hazard before you commit to it.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.