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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2021–Jan 10th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

 Heightened avalanche conditions exist on wind loaded slopes and steep rocky terrain. Although the likelihood of triggering deeply buried weak weak layers is reducing, the consequences of doing so are high. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to unpredictable avalanche behavior.

Weather Forecast

Saturday Night: Isolated flurries, moderate southwest wind, alpine high -7, freezing level 500 m.

Sunday: Isolated flurries, moderate southwest wind, alpine high -4, freezing level 800 m.

Monday: Flurries, accumulation 3-5 cm, moderate southwest wind, alpine high -2, freezing level 1000 m.

Tuesday: Periods of snow, accumulation 10-15 cm, light west wind, alpine high -2 C, freezing level 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Persistent slab avalanche activity seems to have abated in the past few days. Although the likelihood of triggering has reduced, the consequence of triggering a persistent slab remains high.

Reports on Wednesday and Thursday indicate several explosives triggered size 2 storm slab avalanches on northerly and southerly aspects at treeline and in the alpine. There was also a report of a size 2 storm slab avalanche that was triggered by another smaller avalanche running nearby. This was at 1950 m on a northeast aspect. As well on Thursday there was a report of 3 explosives triggered size 2.5-3 persistent slab avalanches on north through southwest aspects at 2100 m. 

A naturally triggered size 3 deep persistent slab avalanche running on a southeast aspect at 2200 m was reported in the Rossland range. It was suspected to have run on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

Recent new snow from earlier in the week has been redistributed by southwest wind at upper elevations. In sheltered areas, recent new snow may sit over surface hoar. 

Two weak layers are buried in close proximity to one another. They are 70-100 cm deep around Nelson and 50-80 cm deep around Rossland and other western parts of the region. The layers are composed of feathery surface hoar and sugary faceted grains and they overlie a hard melt-freeze crust. A crust with facets sitting above that formed in early November is upwards of 200 cm below the surface. This has been the suspected failure layer of a few very large avalanches that ran earlier in the week in the Rossland range.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.