Regions
Vancouver Island.
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No new avalanche observed or reported over the past forecast period.
Past Weather
Cool temperatures and moderate to strong North winds have been transporting limited amounts of available snow . Cool temperatures and clear skies are promoting the formation of surface hoar and it is present in isolated areas sheltered and protected from both the sun and wind.
Weather Forecast
A stationary and strengthening high pressure to the east of the region will continue to draw artic air into the forecast area. Expect cool temperatures to persist and moderate to strong Northern outflow winds to continue throughout this forecast period. Some localized flurries are expected with amounts under 5cm. On the western front ranges, expect freezing levels to reach 750 meters during daytime warming. **Wednesday:** 1 to 5 cm, Winds Light to Moderate from the North East, Freezing levels at sea level with a day time a high of 500 meters.**Thursday:** No new precipitation, Winds Light to Moderate from the North East, Freezing levels at sea level with a day time a high of 500 meters.**Friday:** No new precipitation, Winds Moderate to Strong from the North East, Freezing levels at sea level with a day time a high of 500 meters.
Terrain Advice
Avoid convex roll features.Seek terrain that is well supported.Avoid travel on South aspect terrain during the period of warming and direct sun exposure.Caution when transitioning from areas scoured by the wind into areas with recent wind loading.
Snowpack Summary
The Jan 23, 2021 Persistent weak layer can be found between 60 and 100 cm deep and has been reactive to extensive testing. Moderate compression testing produces sudden planar results. This problem is still present and will continue to linger, it should be monitored and observed prior to committing to entering avalanche terrain. Currently a well bonded layer dense snow is “bridging the upper snowpack” and protecting this layer from triggering in all but thin areas and unsupported features. Expect this to begin to strengthen with the coming cool weather. Available low density snow has been observed being transported by the north wind and small wind slabs are present on southerly terrain, expect as the scale of terrain increases that these winds slab will be exponentially bigger. Surface hoar is forming and can now be found in isolated areas protected from the wind and sun. Take time to observe and report its location as it will provide helpful information in strengthening and maintaining your mental model as future snow storms are likely to eventually bury it.
Snowpack Details
- Surface: A variety of surfaces, new low density snow, wind scoured at upper ridge tops and wind loaded on southerly aspects. Surface hoar is forming on isolated terrain sheltered from the wind and sun.
- Upper: A dense and strong layer of well bonded and settled snow.
- Mid: An eroding crust with facets at its base ( JAN 21 PWL)
- Lower: Well settled.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.