Avalanche forecast

South Columbia

Jan 14 – 15, 2013Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

This forecast is based on a weather model that shows rapidly increasing alpine temperatures on Tuesday. If it doesn’t warm up, then these danger ratings are one notch too high.  See the forecasters blog for warming details.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–5
    New wind slabs may be found behind terrain breaks such as ridges and ribs. These could be triggered by rapid warming and sun radiation over the next few days.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–5
    Be aware of rapid warming and solar radiation forecasted tomorrow and Wednesday which will most likely weaken the snow surface, possibly triggering an avalanche on the surface hoar layer down around 80 cm.

Confidence

Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Monday night and Tuesday: A high pressure dominates the weather bringing dry conditions. Freezing level are expected to rise up to 2500 m. and the sun to shine in the alpine with valley clouds. Winds should be strong from the Northwest.Wednesday: Dry, sunny and warm conditions persist. Thursday: A cold front should lower freezing levels and bring a trace of precipitation.

Avalanche Summary

A few recent natural slab avalanches up to size 2.5 on steep South and Northwest aspects were reported in the Northern part of the region. There was also several natural and skier triggered slab avalanches up to size 1.5 on various aspects all over the region.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack instabilities that were starting to settle could become unstable again if rapid warming occurs with the forecasted weather for the next 2 days. Read the forecaster blog to learn more about this process. The 50-90 cm of recent snow is sitting over weaker snow surfaces including surface hoar (found especially at and below treeline in sheltered areas), a sun crust (on steep S to SW -facing slopes) and facets. The distribution of buried surface hoar is patchy, but where it exists, it may become touchy again. Recent strong winds have also left wind slabs in the lee of terrain breaks such as ridges and ribs at alpine and treeline elevations. A strong mid-pack overlies a weak facet/crust layer near the base of the snowpack, which is now considered inactive.

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