Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2013–Jan 15th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Columbia.

This forecast is based on a weather model that shows rapidly increasing alpine temperatures on Tuesday. If it doesn’t warm up, then these danger ratings are one notch too high.  See the forecasters blog for warming details.

Confidence

Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Monday night and Tuesday: A high pressure dominates the weather bringing dry conditions. Freezing level are expected to rise up to 2500 m. and the sun to shine in the alpine with valley clouds. Winds should be strong from the Northwest.Wednesday: Dry, sunny and warm conditions persist. Thursday: A cold front should lower freezing levels and bring a trace of precipitation.

Avalanche Summary

A few recent natural slab avalanches up to size 2.5 on steep South and Northwest aspects were reported in the Northern part of the region. There was also several natural and skier triggered slab avalanches up to size 1.5 on various aspects all over the region.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack instabilities that were starting to settle could become unstable again if rapid warming occurs with the forecasted weather for the next 2 days. Read the forecaster blog to learn more about this process. The 50-90 cm of recent snow is sitting over weaker snow surfaces including surface hoar (found especially at and below treeline in sheltered areas), a sun crust (on steep S to SW -facing slopes) and facets. The distribution of buried surface hoar is patchy, but where it exists, it may become touchy again. Recent strong winds have also left wind slabs in the lee of terrain breaks such as ridges and ribs at alpine and treeline elevations. A strong mid-pack overlies a weak facet/crust layer near the base of the snowpack, which is now considered inactive.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.