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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 21st, 2023–Mar 22nd, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells, Dogtooth, East Purcell, West Purcell.

Strong solar radiation has initiated several large deep persistent slabs in the past few days. Start and finish your day early and plan to be well away from sun exposed slopes and overhead hazard before the warmest part of the day.

Human-triggering large slab avalanches remains possible in steep, rocky, and/or wind-affected terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Strong solar radiation in the past few days has triggered several natural size 3 deep persistent slabs, mainly on south aspects. These avalanches were reported from rocky alpine and treeline features between 1900 and 2700 m. A variety of solar-triggered loose wet avalanches up to size 1.5 were also observed from steep, rocky slopes.

On Sunday, a remotely triggered size 2 persistent slab avalanche was reported on a NW aspect at 2400 m which failed down 70 cm on facets and was triggered from 30 m away. A human-triggered size 2 wind slab avalanche also occurred on a SE aspect at 2400 m which was estimated to have failed down around 80 cm.

This MIN post describes an older natural size 4 near Golden and a more recent natural size 3. This is a good reminder of the scale and destructive potential of avalanches which are still possible when the deep weak layer is triggered.

Snowpack Summary

The snow surface includes a daily melt-freeze cycle on solar aspects, surface hoar up to 10 mm in shady and wind-sheltered areas, faceting snow on polar aspects, and wind-affected surfaces in exposed terrain.

A weak layer buried around March 12 is now down around 20-40 cm and typically consists of wind-affected snow, facetted snow, and a thin sun crust.

The middle of the snowpack includes at least a couple of lingering persistent weak layers down 50-90 cm including surface hoar in wind-sheltered terrain and a sun crust on south aspects. Activity on these layers has tapered off but still remains a concern in isolated areas.

The lower snowpack is made up of a widespread layer of large, weak facets, and/or depth hoar crystals. This weak layer has been responsible for a number of recent very large, destructive avalanches and will likely continue to be a concern for the rest of the season.

Weather Summary

Tuesday night

Clear. Alpine temperatures reach a low of -4 °C. Light variable ridge wind. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Wednesday

Sunny. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -2 °C. Light variable ridge wind. Freezing level rises to 2000 metres.

Thursday

Sunny with cloudy periods. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -3 °C. Ridge wind 10 to 30 km/h from the southwest. Freezing level rises to 1800 metres.

Friday

A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries. Alpine temperatures reach a high of -5 °C. Ridge wind light from the southwest. Freezing level rises to 1000 metres.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.
  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.