Avalanche forecast

South Columbia

Feb 3 – 4, 2016Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Recently formed wind slabs have been slow to gain strength and remain a concern.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Recent avalanche involvements in the Selkirks show that recently formed wind slabs should remain on our radar. Watch for triggering behind ridge crests.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    3–5
    Persistent slabs have become more difficult to trigger; however, avalanches failing on buried surface hoar would be large and destructive. Use increased caution in steep, open terrain at treeline and below.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: Cloudy with sunny periods and lingering flurries, light southerly winds, -8 at 1500m. FRIDAY Isolated flurries or rain at lower elevations, moderate southerly winds, freezing level rising to 1500m. SATURDAY snow starting overnight with up to 5cm by morning, flurries continuing through the day, light to moderate westerlies, freezing levels remain at 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

Isolated natural and skier controlled slab avalanches up to size 2 continue to be reported from across the region. There is also the ongoing possibility of triggering more destructive persistent slab avalanches in isolated open, unsupported terrain features at and below treeline.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Snowpack Summary

Up to 40cm of snow has fallen in the last week and remains mostly unaffected by wind. The new snow may be sitting on a crust that extends up to 1900m. The surface hoar layer from early January is now typically down 80-120cm in most places. Although the layer has become harder to human trigger and is variably reactive in snowpack tests, it still has the potential for wide propagations. I would continue to show respect for this layer in steep, open terrain at treeline and below. In general, the lower snowpack below this layer is well settled and strong.

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