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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 2nd, 2024–Feb 3rd, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Well, the temps are finally dropping, so new precipitation over the weekend may come as snow.

The bad news? A developing surface crust will make backcountry travel difficult and grim.

The worse news? Backcountry travel is already grim, with heavy, wet slop still dominating surface conditions at lower elevations.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Ongoing warm temps and light rain showers, have triggered isolated large avalanches in steep gullies above the highway over the past couple of days.

A widespread natural avalanche cycle was observed on all aspects and elevations Sunday through Tuesday, with many very large avalanches running full path and gouging deeply in confined gullies. Avalanche control within and adjacent to the park produced numerous avalanches up to size 3.5, some showing wide propagation.

Snowpack Summary

The recent warm weather and rain has soaked the upper snowpack. This is beginning to freeze into a crust as temps cool, making for difficult and hazardous travel conditions at all elevations and on all aspects.

A sun crust (Jan 3), down 60-80cm, can be found at and below Tree-line on S-SW aspects. Wet surface avalanches have been stepping down to this layer and deeper within confined gullies.

The Dec 1 surface hoar layer, down ~120cm, is decomposing.

Weather Summary

Temps are dropping through the weekend. Minor amounts of snow(!) may arrive Sunday.

Tonight: Mainly Cloudy. Alpine low -6°C. Freezing level (FZL) 1400m. Light NW ridgetop winds.

Saturday: Isolated flurries. Alpine high -4°C, FZL 1600m. Light NE wind.

Sun: Scattered flurries (~5cm). Low -7°C, High -6°C. FZL 1400m. Light SE wind.

Mon: Mainly cloudy. Low -8°C, High -6°C. FZL 1500m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • A crust on the surface will help bind the snow together, but may make for tough travel conditions.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.