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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2024–Feb 3rd, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Waterton Lakes, Waterton.

Travel may be difficult due to the lack of snow at lower elevations and slushy, unsupportive snow at all elevations. Continue to use caution on steep slopes as slushy snow could possibly be triggered until the snowpack refreezes.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous avalanches were observed from this week's warming including wet loose, persistent slab, and deep persistent slab avalanches to size 2.5.

Snowpack Summary

In the alpine, moist snow sits on the surface with a capping melt freeze crust. Treeline and below, moist to wet snow exists down to weak layers and even ground in thin areas. All moist snow will start to refreeze through the forecast period. The Dec 23 melt freeze crust and facets are down 30-80 cm. An early season basal crust complex exists in most places in the alpine and at treeline. Significantly less snow in the eastern areas of the park. Snowpack depths between 30 - 150 cm.

Weather Summary

Thurs

Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine high of 5, freezing level above ridgetop. Wind SW 30-40 kph. No precipitation.

Fri

Mainly cloudy. Alpine high of 3. Freezing level 2400 m lowering to 2000 m. Wind SW 20-30 kph. Minimal precipitation.

Sat

Freezing level 1700 m with alpine high of -3. Wind moderate northerly. 10-15 cm precipitation.

For more info see: Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.