Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 6th, 2014–Apr 7th, 2014

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Columbia.

The heat is on! Avalanche hazard will likely increase as temperatures rise throughout the day, be sure your plans allow for a safe retreat from the mountains. Check out the Forecasters Blog for more info on dealing with sultry temps.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: After agonizing over weather products all morning, I'm convinced that freezing levels will exceed 2500m by Monday afternoon, and likely stay there until Wednesday morning. There's been a lot of talk about when the big warm up would finally happen, and it looks like well be staring down the barrel of it for the next 48 hours.Monday: Freezing Level: 1500m rising to 2200m - 2600m; Precipitation: Nil; Wind: Treeline: Light, SW | Ridgetop: Moderate, SWMonday Night: Freezing Level: 2500mTuesday: Freezing Level: 2400m - 2600m; Precipitation: Trace; Wind: Treeline: Light, SW | Ridgetop: Strong, SWTuesday Night: Freezing Level: 2500m lowering to 1500mWednesday: Freezing Level: 1500m - 2000m; Precipitation: 4:8mm - 4:15cm; Wind: Treeline: Moderate, NW | Ridgetop: Strong, NW

Avalanche Summary

Activity on Saturday was limited to small wind slabs and cornice failures on upper elevation (2000 - 2500m) north and east facing slopes.

Snowpack Summary

Recent warm temperatures have resulted in good settlement and bonding of the storm snow from earlier in the week, but you may find the odd skier triggerable wind slab on north and east aspects.Three persistent weak layers exist in the highly variable snowpack of the Columbias:The mid-March sun crust/surface hoar layer down 50-80cm still has potential for human-triggering in isolated areas. The early-March crust/facet/surface hoar layer down around 80-120cm has become less susceptible to human triggering, but still has the capacity to produce large avalanches.The mid-February crust/facet/surface hoar combo is typically down 150 - 200cm. Direct triggering of this layer has become unlikely, however, cornice fall, a smaller avalanche in motion or prolonged warming may wake this layer up, which would result in very large and destructive avalanches.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.