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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 2nd, 2025–Mar 3rd, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, Akamina, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

The more supportive the surface crust, the more stable the snowpack. Keep up the conservative terrain choices at higher elevations where persistent slabs may still react to a human trigger.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural size 2.5 persistent slabs were observed in the Castle area on Friday and again on Saturday. Friday's slide released from a cross-loaded gulley at treeline and both ran on the late-January weak layer, around 50 cm deep.

In nearby Warterton, five natural size 2.5 - 3 persistent slabs were observed on north through east slopes at treeline and in the alpine, one triggered by a cornice and all failing on the same January layer, which remains a concern at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

A melt-freeze crust or moist snow makes up the surface on solar aspects and on all aspects below about 1900 m. Moist snow extends 30 - 50 cm deep and thin solar aspects are moist to ground. This process has transformed 30 cm of snow from last week, which was redistributed by strong southwest winds at treeline and above.

The main feature of the region's overall shallow snowpack is a persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets from late January now buried 40 to 60 cm deep (see photo below). This layer was active during the warmup and remains a concern at elevations where strong surface crust hasn't stabilized the snowpack.

Check out this MIN for recent conditions in the Elkford area.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Becoming cloudy. 5 to 20 km/h northwest ridgetop wind, increasing. Freezing level falling from 2700 m to 1500 m.

Monday

Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing about 5 cm of new snow above 1400 m. 15 - 20 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1500 m. Treeline temperature -2 °C.

Tuesday

A mix of sun and cloud with cloud increasing. 5 - 15 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, closer to 40 km/h in alpine, increasing. Freezing level 1800 m. Treeline temperature around 0 °C.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries and cloud decreasing. 15 - 25 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, easing. Freezing level 1800 m. Treeline temperature around 0 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid thin areas like rocky outcrops where you're most likely to trigger avalanches on deep weak layers.
  • Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
  • Avalanche activity is unlikely when a thick melt-freeze crust is present on the snow surface.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.