Avalanche forecast

Vancouver Island

Jan 11 – 12, 2026Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate

Highlights

Warming temperatures and rain will further weaken the snowpack, increasing loose wet avalanche activity, especially during and shortly after precipitation shifts from snow to rain.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Higher elevations may continue to receive precipitation as snow. In these areas, storm slabs are likely, especially where wind has redistributed new snow into deeper deposits.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Both natural and rider-triggered avalanches are likely anywhere the upper snowpack is being saturated by rain.

Confidence

Moderate

  • Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.
  • Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanche activity has been reported since the stormy weather earlier this week.

Looking ahead, snowfall and strong winds at higher elevations may continue to build fresh wind and storm slabs. At lower elevations, rain is likely to destabilize the upper snowpack, increasing the likelihood of wet loose avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Rainfall and rising temperatures are continuing through the weekend, which will create wet surface snow at and below treeline. In alpine terrain, precipitation may continue as snow, accompanied by strong winds.

A thick crust formed last weekend is now buried beneath 30 to 50 cm of snow.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally moist, well-settled, and dense, with average depths of 100–150 cm at treeline.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night
Cloudy. 5 to 15 mm of rain at treeline. 50 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 2 °C. Freezing level 1700 m.

Sunday
Cloudy. 25 to 50 mm of rain at treeline. 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 3 °C. Freezing level 1900 m.

Monday
Cloudy. 60 to 120 mm of rain at treeline. 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 5 °C. Freezing level 2200 m.

Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. 5 to 15 mm of rain at treeline. 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 6 °C. Freezing level 3100 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Loose avalanches may start small, but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Regions covered