Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2026–Jan 11th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Warming temperatures and rain will further weaken the snowpack, increasing loose wet avalanche activity, especially during and shortly after precipitation shifts from snow to rain.

Confidence

Moderate

Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.
Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanche activity has been reported since the stormy weather earlier this week.

Looking ahead, snowfall and strong winds at higher elevations may continue to build fresh wind and storm slabs. At lower elevations, rain is likely to destabilize the upper snowpack, increasing the likelihood of wet loose avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Rainfall and rising temperatures are continuing through the weekend, which will create wet surface snow at and below treeline. In alpine terrain, precipitation may continue as snow, accompanied by strong winds.

A thick crust formed last weekend is now buried beneath 30 to 50 cm of snow.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally moist, well-settled, and dense, with average depths of 100–150 cm at treeline.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night
Cloudy. 5 to 15 mm of rain at treeline. 50 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 2 °C. Freezing level 1700 m.

Sunday
Cloudy. 25 to 50 mm of rain at treeline. 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 3 °C. Freezing level 1900 m.

Monday
Cloudy. 60 to 120 mm of rain at treeline. 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 5 °C. Freezing level 2200 m.

Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. 5 to 15 mm of rain at treeline. 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 6 °C. Freezing level 3100 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
Loose avalanches may start small, but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.