Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 19th, 2022–Feb 20th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Storm slabs are expected to remain reactive to human triggering, especially in wind-loaded terrain.

Forecast will be updated at 6:30AM (PST) if overnight snowfall exceeds forecast.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain. Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

Get ready for a wicked 180 as arctic air invades the province bringing cold temperatures and clear skies. 

Saturday Overnight: Continued snowfall, trace to 5cm accumulation. Freezing level dropping to valley bottom, alpine temperatures around -10 C. Light to moderate northwesterly winds. 

Sunday: Mainly cloudy, light snowfall. Alpine temperatures around -12 C. Light northwesterly winds. 

Monday: Mainly clear. Alpine temperatures around -20 C. Light to moderate northeasterly winds.

Tuesday: Mainly clear. Alpine temperatures around -20 C. Light to moderate northeasterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Human-triggered storm slab avalanches are likely on Sunday.

As the winds picked up on Thursday, operators in the south of the region reported numerous small skier-triggered wind slabs failing easily on the old hard surface.

Last weekend, sledders near Blue River remote triggered several large slab avalanches on shaded aspects at treeline. The failure plane of these avalanches is uncertain, but large remote triggered avalanches would make us suspect it failed on the late January buried surface hoar. Photos from this incident can be seen here.

Snowpack Summary

Saturday's 10-40 cm of new snow will add to this week's snowfall with 30-100 cm now overlying the old, hard surface. This surface is comprised of facetted snow, a melt-freeze crust at lower elevations, a sun-crust on steep solar aspects, and hard wind-affected snow in the alpine and exposed treeline. 

Digging deeper in the snowpack another weak interface exists of primarily surface hoar/crust now buried up to 120 cm. There has been no reactivity on this layer in the past week, and test results indicate that this layer is bonding well and trending towards being unreactive. 

The lower snowpack is generally strong and well-bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • Shooting cracks, whumphs and recent avalanches are strong indicators of an unstable snowpack.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.