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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2022–Mar 17th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Storm slabs have been sensitive to human and natural triggering the last few days. Ongoing snow and wind will keep building on this problem, making it slow to settle and stabilize.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy, flurries, and freezing levels hovering around 1500m the next few days.

Tonight: Mainly cloudy, Alpine low -8*C, moderate SW ridgetop wind

Thurs: Flurries (7cm), high -5*C, freezing level (FZL) 1500m, moderate SW wind

Fri: Flurries (6cm), low -7*C, high -5*C, FZL 1500m, mod SW wind

Sat: Cloudy, low -6*C, high -3*C, FZL 1600m

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow continues to pile up (40-60cm of settled snow since Mar 11th), with moderate SW wind loading up lee aspects. Solar aspects now have several suncrusts buried in the upper snowpack. On shaded aspects there are several layers of small surface hoar in the upper and mid snowpack; March 7 (down ~70cm); Feb 26 (down 90cm); and Feb 15 (down >1m)

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday.

Several size 2-3 natural storm slabs occurred above the highway, and we had reports of naturals up to size 3 in the Illecillewaet valley.

A field team triggered a few size 1.0 storm slabs, failing on the Mar 11th suncrust on steep supported rolls below treeline.

Avalanche control produced size 2-3 avalanches in recently controlled terrain

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.