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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 13th, 2022–Feb 14th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

New snow and shifting winds from southwest to northwest may form small reactive wind slabs on lee features at treeline and above.

Small wet loose avalanches may run long distances in steep terrain.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with flurries; 5-10 cm / Light, west wind / Low of -3 / Freezing level 500 m.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud / Strong, northwest wind / High of 0 / Freezing level 1000 m.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries; 0-3 cm / Strong, northwest wind / High of -2 / Freezing level 700 m.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with flurries; 3-5 cm / Strong, northwest wind / High of 2 / Freezing level 1100 m.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous naturally triggered size 2-3 storm slab avalanches were reported west of Ningunsaw Provincial Park on Saturday. They were releasing at the rain/snow line between 1200-1500 m on all aspects.

Explosive triggered cornice failures released several very large (size 3) persistent slab avalanches that likely failed on a crust buried in early February. They occurred northeast of Terrace on Friday. This is a good reminder that large loads, such as cornices or smaller avalanches in motion, can trigger deeply buried weak layers that would be difficult to human trigger.

 

Snowpack Summary

5-10 cm of wind-pressed snow overlies a thick (10-15 cm) rain crust that extends to mountain tops. This crust has created challenging travel conditions and a "slide-for-life" hazard on steep slopes.

Small wind slabs may be found on lee features in the alpine. 

The weak layers in the snowpack (such as the crust or surface hoar layers down around 100 cm) are unlikely to human trigger in areas where a hard surface crust is present. If the surface crust is warmed up and breaks down, triggering persistent slab avalanches becomes more likely.

However, cornices overhead are a primary concern during sunny, warm, or windy conditions. Cornice failures may trigger very large persistent slab avalanches that would otherwise be difficult to human trigger.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
  • Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.