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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 18th, 2022–Feb 19th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Avalanche danger will increase this weekend as new snow and wind will form unstable slabs at upper elevations. 

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy skies, no precipitation, strong wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -6 C.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with flurries starting in the morning and 5-10 cm of snow by the late afternoon, strong wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -6 C.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries bringing another 5-15 cm of snow, wind easing off throughout the day with mostly light northeast gusts, treeline temperatures drop to -15 C throughout the day.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny, moderate wind from the northeast, treeline temperatures around -20 C.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity over the past few days has been limited to small (size 1) slab and loose avalanches in steep alpine terrain. With the incoming storm we could expect to see larger wind slabs form at upper elevations.

Snowpack Summary

New snow will form some isolated wind slabs at upper elevations and bring 5 to 10 cm of low density snow in sheltered terrain. Roughly 10 to 20 cm of snow sits above hard wind-affect snow and melt-freeze crusts. The snowpack below is well consolidated, with a crust/facet layer found near the bottom of the snowpack. It is currently considered dormant, but could become active later this season as discussed in this forecaster blog.

Terrain and Travel

  • Fresh wind slabs will likely form throughout the day, diligently watch for changing conditions.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid areas of wind loaded snow.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.