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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2022–Feb 17th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

Heightened avalanche conditions exist on steep convex slopes. Avalanches are less likely where thick crusts exist near the surface.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy skies with light flurries along the northern and western Purcells with up to 5 cm of new snow possible, moderate wind from the northwest, treeline temperatures drop to -10 C.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing up to 5 cm of snow along the northern and western Purcells, moderate to strong wind from the west, treeline temperatures around -5 C with freezing level climbing to 1200 m.

FRIDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light flurries along the western Purcells bringing a trace of snow, moderate wind from the northwest, treeline temperatures around -3 C with freezing level around 1500 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with flurries bringing 5-10 cm of snow, moderate wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -5 C with freezing level around 1200 m.

Avalanche Summary

No significant human triggered avalanches have been reported over the past week. Explosives have broken some large cornices over the past few days, but for the most part these have not triggered slabs on the slopes below. One exception was on Sunday when a cornice triggered a size 2.5 slab west of Forster Creek. This avalanche occurred on north aspect at 2250 m and failed on a 40 cm deep surface hoar layer.

Snowpack Summary

5 to 15 cm of fresh snow overlies a variety of surfaces. Higher elevations are heavily wind effected with a melt freeze crust on solar aspects. Lower elevations hold a widespread thick melt freeze on all aspects with surface hoar sitting above the crust in sheltered terrain. The late January interface is buried 20 to 40 cm deep, and consists of a melt-freeze crust at lower elevations and on solar aspects extending into the alpine. Surface hoar sits above the crust in sheltered areas at treeline and below. The snowpack below is well consolidated, with the early-December crust/facet persistent weak layer buried 80-150 cm deep. It is currently considered dormant. We expect this layer to become active later this season, check out the forecaster blog for more information.

Terrain and Travel

  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Pay attention to isolated alpine features as well as cross-loaded features at treeline.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.