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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2022–Mar 15th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

 Avoid avalanche terrain at treeline and above. Give the storm snow time to bond to the underlying surfaces. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: stormy with 10 to 30 cm of new snow expected at higher elevations. Freezing levels rising to 1800 m. Moderate to strong southwest winds.

Tuesday: stormy with 10 to 30 cm of new snow . Moderate to strong southwest winds and freezing levels rising to 1800 m.

Wednesday: a mix of sun and cloud with the possibility of light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Freezing levels rising to 1500 m. Light westerly winds.

Thursday: a mix of sun and cloud with light flurries bringing trace amounts of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds and freezing levels rising to 1700 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday two size two natural storm slab avalanches were observed in the lizard range. One of these is believed to have been triggered by a cornice failure. Details on these avalanches is limited. 

On Saturday ski cutting produced several slab avalanches to size 1.5 in treeline terrain. Natural loose dry avalanches to size 1.5 were observed in alpine and treeline terrain.

On Friday one sled triggered size two slab avalanche was reported. This avalanche was triggered in an open treeline feature on a west aspect and is believed to have failed on the late January layer.

On Tuesday a group of skiers remotely triggered a slab avalanche on an east aspect near ridgetop. We suspect it failed on facets above a crust. Wind loading above this layer was a factor.

Snowpack Summary

New wind and storm slabs will likely build over night and throughout the day on Tuesday. Wind slab will likely be found on north and east aspects. A crust on solar aspects from last week could be found down around 30 cm on solar aspects. Moist snow could be observed at lower elevations.

A substantial crust from the start of March is down 30 to 50 cm in the far southern part of the region.

The late January surface hoar layer is burried more than a meter deep.

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.