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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 28th, 2022–Mar 29th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Keep a close eye on how the temperature and sun are affecting the snowpack in your local zone. The freezing level is forecasted to rise well into the alpine for Tuesday morning, but other factors may keep the upper snowpack cool, lowering avalanche danger. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather. A small change in the upper snowpack could dramatically change avalanche conditions.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. No new snow/rain expected. Light north ridgetop wind. Freezing levels around 2000 m. 

TUESDAY: Mostly clear in the morning, increasing cloud through the day. Light variable ridgetop winds. Freezing levels approach 2500 m. 

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Light to moderate snowfall expected with rain at low elevations. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falls to around 1400 m. 

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Very light snow/rain expected. Light variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to around 750 m overnight, back up to 1500 m through the day.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday in the Whistler area, explosive avalanche control produced cornice avalanches up to size 2.5, and a few small storm slab avalanches in the alpine. Small loose wet avalanche activity continued with warming and rider traffic.

On Saturday and Sunday, small loose wet avalanches were naturally triggered by warm temperatures and short periods of sunshine. 

On Saturday, at higher elevations, new storm slabs were reactive to human triggers to size 1. 

A large avalanche was reported on a steep alpine slope near Blackcomb on Thursday, likely failing on the mid February weak layer, now buried around 80 cm deep. While the trigger is unknown, it's likely that warming and strong sun had weakened the snowpack. 

Snowpack Summary

With freezing levels rising to 2500 m, moist snow is expected on all aspects into the alpine. On the highest peaks, Above 2500 m, storm slabs sit on wind affected surfaces in shaded alpine areas, and on a sun crust on south facing slopes. Storm accumulations near Whistler range from 15-30 cm, with higher accumulations north of the Jervis Inlet. 

40 to 100 cm overlies the mid March interfaces. This layer exists as surface hoar in shady, wind-sheltered areas and a hard crust on sun-exposed slopes into the alpine. Several other weak layers exist in the upper and mid snowpack, reports suggest these layers are bonding well and avalanche activity is unlikely except from large loads like cornice falls. 

Terrain and Travel

  • In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.
  • Be alert to conditions that change throughout the day.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with aspect and elevation.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.