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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 6th, 2023–Feb 7th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Flathead, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Evaluate snow conditions as you transition into open terrain features, and be on the lookout for signs of instability like shooting cracks. Stiff, wind deposited snow can be expected to avalanche under the weight of a rider.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, east of Fernie, a couple of small to large natural and rider triggered avalanches were reported that involved cornices. See the MIN report for more information.

Natural and rider-triggered (size 1 to 1.5) wind slabs have been recently reported at treeline and alpine elevations. This MIN report from the South Rockies field team is a good example of terrain where wind slabs are more likely to be triggered.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

A dusting of new snow covers 10 to 15 cm of storm snow from late last week that was redistributed by moderate to strong winds which developed wind slabs at treeline and alpine elevations. This overlies previous wind slabs, or a melt-freeze crust below 1900 m.

Deep weak layers formed early season are slowly gaining strength but are still a concern, especially in steep rocky terrain features.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Cloudy. 0-2 cm of snow expected. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind, trending to strong west at higher elevations. Treeline temperature around -5 ºC.

Tuesday

Cloudy. 0-5 cm of snow expected. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop wind, trending to strong at higher elevations. Treeline temperature around -5 ºC.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy. 10-15 cm of snow expected overnight and through the day. Moderate west or northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -7 °C.

Thursday

Sunny in the morning, increasing cloud through the day. No new snow expected. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop wind, strong west at higher elevations. Rapid temperature drop overnight, freezing level back to 1250 m by the afternoon.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
  • Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.