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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 11th, 2026–Mar 12th, 2026

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Columbia, Esplanade, North Monashee, North Selkirk, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat.

Update 6:45 am: Limit your exposure to avalanche terrain. Snowfall will form surface instabilities while testing deeper layers that have already produced many destructive avalanches.

Confidence

High

  • We are uncertain about forecast snowfall amounts.

Avalanche Summary

During the storm on the weekend, a widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred. These included storm slabs size 2-3 and persistent slabs size 3-3.5.

On Monday, many persistent slabs size 3-3.5 were triggered in explosive control work throughout the region. This scary MIN report from the Esplanades describes very large persistent slab avalanches remotely triggered by riders from hundreds of meters away.

Expect similar activity to resume with forecast weather.

Snowpack Summary

25 to 40 cm of new snow should accumulate by end-of day Thursday, adding to 20 to 50 cm already overlying firm early March surfaces, including a crust which extends up to 1800 m in the north and 2200 m in the south. We're now at the point where avalanches failing at this interface will be large and destructive.

Three more layers in the mid-snowpack remain suspect.

  • One or two surface hoar layers buried in February are found 60 to 120 cm deep. In some areas these sit on a thin crust.

  • A deeper, widespread layer buried in late January, made up of surface hoar, facets, and/or a crust, sits 100 to 180 cm deep. Surface hoar within this layer is most preserved and largest in sheltered terrain at treeline and below.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night
Cloudy with increasing snowfall bringing 20 to 30 cm of new snow. 30 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, increasing. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

Thursday
Mostly cloudy with lighter flurries bringing another 5 to 10 cm of new snow. 30 to 50 km/h west ridgetop wind, easing. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

Friday
A mix of sun and cloud with easing scattered flurries and another 5 to 10 cm of new snow, including overnight. 20 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

Saturday
A mix of sun and cloud with scattered flurries bringing less than 5 cm of new snow. 20 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • It's critical to stay disciplined and stick to gentle, low consequence terrain.
  • Don't let storm day fever lure you into consequential terrain.
  • Use conservative route selection. Choose simple, low angle terrain with no overhead hazard.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.