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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 8th, 2012–Apr 9th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Rockies.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Monday is the tail end of the beautiful weather pattern we've been in for the past few days. The upper flow switches from northerly to a more mild southerly on Tuesday which will push freezing levels above 3000 m. Monday: Freezing level starts near the surface, topping out around 2500m. A few clouds build into the region in the afternoon. The current forecast shows that Monday night is the last good overnight refreeze until next weekend. Tuesday: Temperatures should already be near 2000 m at dawn and are forecasted to continue to climb to 3000 m by lunch time. Cloud cover increases to 50% as winds Light southeast winds are forecast for at all elevations Tuesday. Temps remain high through the night. Wednesday: Freezing level stays around 3000 all day. Ridge top winds strong SE diminishing in speed at lower elevations.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanche activity reported Saturday or Sunday. On Friday in the Fernie area a skier triggered a size 1.5 avalanche with a 20 cm crown on an E facing slope at 2000 m Friday. Some loose snow activity on a SE facing slope was also reported, but, there is surprisingly little avalanche activity in the region currently.

Snowpack Summary

Mild temperatures in combination with the strong spring sun have helped to settle out the 20 cm from Wednesday's storm which came to rest on the April 4th melt/freeze crust. At this point last weeks storm snow has seen a lot of the sun & it has behaved quite well, producing very little in the way of avalanches. Recent storm snow has added up to 60-120 cm depending on the drainage. Our field team was out in the region Saturday; they were able to find the March 27th interface down around 90cm below the snow surface but test profiles did not produce any results on this layer. Large cornices loom over many lee slopes. Glide cracks are a concern, be sure to give them a wide berth as they are very sensitive and could fail at any moment.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.