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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 11th, 2014–Mar 12th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies.

Rain soaked and moist upper elevation snow packs may take a while to cool off and stabilize. Pay close attention to daytime heating and mature cornices. For more information on the tricky conditions see the latest:South Rockies Blog

Confidence

Fair - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A upper level ridge is building over the interior of BC and will bring clear skies and warm spring-like conditions for the next few days.Tonight: Clear periods, freezing level will drop to valley bottom. ridge top winds light from the west.Wednesday: Sunny with cloudy periods, no precipitation in the forecast, freezing level rising to 1800m. winds from the west, light to moderate.Thursday: Sunny with cloudy periods, possibility of flurries, freezing level rising to 1700m. Light ridge top winds.Friday: Cloudy with sunny periods, trace of precipitation, freezing level around 1800 metres, winds from the southwest , light to moderate, gusting to strong.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous reports of large wet avalanches in the forecast area, some running full path beyond their historical run-out zone. Cornices have gotten large and ripe and may trigger large destructive avalanches if they fail.Avalanches in clear-cuts, road banks, lower angle terrain, and non obvious avalanche paths continue to surprise back country enthusiasts throughout the region, so consider them carefully in your travel plans through the forecast period.

Snowpack Summary

Night time cooling will help to stabilize the tricky conditions as the storm slab settles and gains strength. Daytime heating will again put the weak layers up for action as the snowpack adjusts to the warming and cooling, especially the weak layer closest to the surface from March 2nd.  Any activity on this layer may create a big enough load to trigger the lower weak layers with the possibility of a very large destructive avalanche. Slopes gaining heat from the strong spring sun should be highly suspect, and treated with respect and caution.  The weak layers buried in this years snow pack are not going away soon, and may not go away until the seasons snow has completely melted, especially on north aspectsIn the lower elevations (below 1600m) in the south of the region, expect the snowpack to be rain soaked and losing cohesion. Below tree line the snow pack is most likely close to isothermal in rain affected areas, and at least moist everywhere else.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.