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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2014–Feb 1st, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure will continue to keep things cold and dry for the forecast period. We should see increased cloud for late Sunday and Monday, but no real precipitation is expected. Winds are expected be light to moderate from the northwest on Saturday decreasing substantially by Sunday and Monday. Alpine temperatures should hover around -15 for the weekend with more significant cooling by Monday.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche activity has been reported.

Snowpack Summary

About 10cm of recent snowfall overlies well developed surface hoar in many areas. The new snow may exist as a thin soft slab in wind-exposed terrain. Below this you'll likely find about 10cm of faceted snow over older surface hoar and old, unreactive wind slabs. A melt-freeze crust is now buried on most slopes that saw direct sun last week.The main concern in the region continues to be the weak buried faceted snow which exists in the mid or lower snowpack (depending where you are in the region). No avalanche activity has been reported at this interface for some time; however, weaknesses continue to appear in snowpack tests. Although unlikely, avalanches at this interface could have nasty consequences. Possible triggers for this layer include cornice fall, rapid temperature change or a heavy load over a thin spot.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.