Avalanche forecast

South Rockies

Dec 3 – 4, 2014Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Forecast confidence is very poor, we desperately need your observations right now. Please email them to [email protected]

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–3
    Moderate winds out of the W, NW and SW likely redistributed at least some of the weekends big snowfall into wind slabs which are probably still prone to human triggering.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–5
    A weak layer of facets buried a meter deep may fail when overloaded by a skier, sledder or even wind transported snow. Avalanches on this layer could be surprisingly large.

Confidence

Poor - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: Dry and cold northwest flow is giving way to rather mild southwest flow. Cold will likely remain entrenched in the valley bottoms for until Saturday when there is potential for a strong inversion. The weak flow should deliver a small amount of precip over the weekend with a healthy dose of strong SW winds. Thursday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom; Precipitation: 0-2mm | trace-4cm; Wind: Treeline: Light, SW | Ridgetop: Moderate, SW/WFriday: Freezing Level: Valley Bottom; Precipitation: 0-1mm | trace; Wind: Treeline: Moderate, SW | Ridgetop: Strong, WSaturday: Freezing Level: 500 - 1500m; Precipitation: 0-1mm | trace; Wind: Treeline: Strong, SW | Ridgetop: Extreme, SW

Avalanche Summary

The last activity I heard tell of was an explosive trigged size 2 storm slab on a high elevation N-NE aspect. (read: old news) Seen anything more recent?

Snowpack Summary

As we begin our forecasting season, we are working with almost no field data. If you have been out in the mountains, we'd love to hear from you. There is at least one, maybe more, problematic layers in the South Rockies snowpack. Last weekends 30 - 60cm of storm snow buried a weak layer of facets over a crust which formed during November's dry spell. That interface is probably around a meter down now. Not much us known about the reactivity of this layer, nor the slab above it. But, it doesn't take much of a leap of faith to understand that a meter deep slab sitting on a persistent weak layer is a potentially bad thing.This forecast isn't going to get much better until we get some field observations. If you've got some, please send them in. Eventually you'll be able to use the Mountain Information Network, but for now please email your obs to: [email protected] THANKS!

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