The Avalanche Danger will be higher in areas east of the divide where heavy snowfall was noted on Monday. Forecast solar radiation will add to the reactivity of the new snow making large avalanches more likely.
Confidence
Moderate - Due to the number of field observations on Monday
Weather Forecast
A ridge of high pressure will dominate the province bringing a mix of sun and cloud for the forecast period. Ridgetop winds will be strong from the northeast on Tuesday, and then become light for Wednesday and Thursday. The freezing level will rising gradually from about 2000m on Tuesday to about 2600m by Thursday.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were reported on Saturday. I expect a new round of storm slab activity in response to new snow and wind on Sunday night and Monday. Solar warming will become the driver for natural avalanche activity throughout the forecast period. With that, I'd add loose wet avalanches and cornice falls to the mix.
Snowpack Summary
Moderate to heavy snowfall and wind on Monday are expected to form potent new storm slabs. A moderate westerly flow will taper-off, and extreme northeasterly winds are expected at the tail end of the system. With that, I'm sure the wind-effect will be variable and new wind slabs will be found in unsuspecting locations. The new snow will overlie stubborn wind slabs in shaded high elevation terrain and a hard crust in most other places. Deeply buried weak layers near the ground are becoming hard to find, but may remain sensitive to triggering from significant warming or with large loads such as cornice fall. Large cornices overhang alpine slopes and will become increasingly weak with forecast solar radiation.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.