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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 26th, 2017–Nov 27th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Avalanche danger will remain heightened while incremental loading continues to test the snowpack. Forecast winds are set to amplify storm slab danger at higher elevations.

Confidence

Low - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Monday: Cloudy with flurries bringing 5-15 cm of new snow, increasing overnight. Strong southwest winds. Alpine temperatures around -6.Tuesday: Mainly cloudy with flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Moderate to strong southwest winds. Alpine temperatures around -6Wednesday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries bringing a trace to 5 cm of new snow, increasing over the day. Freezing level rising to 1300 metres with alpine temperatures around -3.

Avalanche Summary

One report from Wednesday describes several estimated Size 2.5-3 avalanches observed on the Kathlyn face of Hudson Bay Mountain. A recent report from social media showed a Size 2 avalanche that occurred last Monday in alpine terrain in the Babines. In spite of its age, the slide is notable for apparently having run on the late October persistent weak layer. No other new avalanches have been reported. Please post your observations to the Mountain Information Network. (MIN)

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths over the south of the region are above average for late November, with total depths of approximately 150 cm present at treeline elevations and above. The past week of stormy weather delivered about 60 cm of new snow to form the upper snowpack in the region. A thin rain crust may exist at mid-depth within this new snow. Below the new snow, about 20-30 cm of settled storm snow lies above the widespread late October crust. This October crust is present near the base of the snowpack at all elevations and features a layer of weak, sugary grains above it. This "crust/facet combo" layer remains an ongoing concern for step-down potential from large triggers such as a storm slab release. This layer is less of a concern below treeline where it is broken up by vegetation near the ground.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.