Avalanche Forecast

Good - -1

A ridge of high pressure will remain imbedded over the region for the forecast period. Winds will be mostly light and southwesterly with daytime alpine temperatures remaining below freezing.

Avalanche activity tapered-off dramatically in the wake of Friday's natural cycle. Over the weekend activity was mostly on solar aspects at higher elevations to size 2.5. One exception to that was a size 3 skier-triggered slab avalanche (see incident report database) near Kaslo that failed to ground on depth hoar. It was on a northwest aspect at 2500m. I expect a decrease in avalanche activity with forecast cooling on Monday.

January was a snowy month in the South Columbia region and average snowpack depths at 1700m are now between 2 and 3m. For the most part, the storm snow is well settled on shaded aspects and riders are gaining increased confidence on steeper terrain. A generally dormant weakness at the bottom of the mid-pack is a surface hoar layer that formed in mid-December. Towards the south end of the region there has also been talk of isolated basal facets. On Friday a significant avalanche cycle took place waking up a number of recent storm layers as well as deeply buried weaknesses as sun exposed slopes and cornices became moist and weak. Reactivity of deeper layers was not limited to south aspects as some deep failures were observed on north aspects without cornice fall as a trigger. Widespread strengthening and crust recovery should occur with forecast cooling for Monday. If you're heading into the mountains, it's a good time to take stock of evolving layers (crusts, surface hoar) that may be an issue when it finally snows again.