Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Human triggered avalanches are possible, particularly in wind-loaded terrain. Pay attention to cracks shooting out in front of your sled or skis, a clear sign that you’ve found unstable snow. Avalanches may be triggered remotely — from above, below, and to the sides of slopes.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Several prominent persistent weak layers exist in our early-season snowpack (read Forecast Discussion below). Although this zone received less snowfall from Thursday's storm, it did get more wind. Also, yesterday's northwesterly winds blew more strongly than forecast—especially in the Soldiers. The resulting wind drifts may be a problem on their own, but the more serious issue is that they're adding additional weight to underlying weak layers. On Friday, riders in the Soldier Mountains triggered a small avalanche on a slope with signs of wind effect (see photo). 

    Choosing conservative terrain with no evidence of wind drifting is the best way to avoid triggering an avalanche. Be alert to signs of unstable snow such as cracking or collapsing—these are obvious indicators you've found dangerous conditions.

Avalanche Discussion

The mountains have not received significant accumulations of snow since Friday morning, but obvious signs of instability continue. On Saturday, two separate parties of skiers triggered avalanches in the Galena Summit area. That same day, a group of riders triggered an avalanche on a wind-loaded slope in the Soldier Mountains. On each of the past three days, as I traveled on ridgelines that we’re not exposed to avalanche hazard, I remotely triggered avalanches. These avalanches occurred in three different mountain ranges. Don’t skim over these details, take a minute to let them sink in.

A layer of surface hoar is the primary culprit of nearly all of the recently reported, human-triggered avalanche activity. This layer developed in the clear, cold days that followed the set of storms over the Thanksgiving holiday. I’ve found these weak, feathery crystals in the mountains spanning from Banner Summit, down to the Sawtooths and Western Smokys, across the valley into the White Clouds, south to Galena Pass, and further south into the Boulders. In short, I’ve found it everywhere I’ve looked. The nature of the snowpack varies widely across our forecast zones, but this layer is a disturbing constant. 

If you’re the kind of person who reads the two paragraphs above and thinks, “I wish there was more to worry about,” I’ve got great news for you.  Large, sugary grains of depth hoar can be found in the Sawtooths, Western Smokys, White Clouds, northern Boulders, and Banner Summit area. Yesterday in the White Clouds, I observed a 600-800’ wide avalanche that had failed just above the ground on this weak snow, wiping out the vast majority of the snowpack. Skiers in the Sawtooths yesterday reported unstable snowpack test results and widespread cracking and collapsing on this layer and they stuck to low angle slopes not threatened by avalanche terrain above.

The year is just getting going but the list of problems to worry about is long. Complex, overlapping patterns of weak snow are very difficult to deal with. The easiest solution is to exercise conservative route finding and decision making in your backcountry travels. I know, that’s not what you want to hear. It isn’t what I want to have to tell you. But we don’t have any input into the character of the snowpack; the only thing we have control over is ourselves.

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