Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
1 · Low
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Light snowfall and moderate winds may form fresh wind drifts at upper elevations—especially in the Soldiers where a bit more snow is expected. These will likely be small, but could be easily triggered. Isolated areas of unstable snow may exist on very steep slopes, particularly at elevations above 9,000'. Be on the lookout for areas where old stiff, wind-drifts overlie weak, sugary snow near the ground. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    The last significant, reported avalanche in this zone occurred on February 6th when ski patrollers at Bald Mountain intentionally triggered an avalanche during mitigation work before opening the ski area. The slide failed on a wind-loaded slope that sees little ski traffic and harbored weak, sugary, faceted snow in the lower part of the snowpack.

    This exact snowpack scenario—hard, wind-drifted snow overlying weak, faceted snow—is where you're most likely to find unstable conditions today. These slabs often form downwind of prominent terrain features and can sound "drummy" or feel hollow beneath your skis or sled. While triggering a slab avalanche is unlikely, I'd still pay attention in very steep, recently wind-loaded terrain, especially at elevations over about 9000'.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSIONToday's storm is forecast to produce 1-3 inches of new snow in this zone, and this shouldn't have a huge impact on the avalanche danger. In fact, the age-old phrase "lipstick on a pig" comes to mind. But with moderate winds expected, look for thin, fresh wind slabs in upper elevation terrain. These will be forming on a variety of slippery surfaces including icy crusts and facets. So, while small, these could be sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider. 

Avalanche Discussion

Today's storm should produce less than about 4 inches of new snow in the mountains south of Galena Summit. This snowfall shouldn't have a huge effect on today's avalanche danger, but fresh, thin wind slabs may form in upper elevation terrain. Due to the old, slick surfaces they're forming on, they could be touchy but are likely to be small in size. On the other end of the likelihood/size spectrum, the persistent slab problem continues to nag us. While unlikely, triggering one of these would produce an avalanche plenty big enough to bury or kill you. 

In the Sawtooth & Western Smokys and Banner Summit zones, our attention is slowly shifting from deeply buried persistent weak layers to storm-related surface instabilities. Even though today's storm isn't looking as promising as it was a few days ago, up to 8 inches of new snow could accumulate in these mountains by the end of the day. With the low-confidence weather forecast, this storm could produce even more (or of course, less). Moderate westerly winds today will easily transport this new snow into fresh, soft wind drifts on upper elevation ridgelines and other prominent terrain features. These wind slabs will form on old snow surfaces that include anything and everything—wind-hardened surfaces, stiff drifts, sun crusts, and near-surface facets. All of these tend to be slippery, and today's fresh wind slabs will likely be touchy on steep slopes. If the storm produces more than forecast—say, greater than about 8 inches—we may begin to see a storm slab problem on very slopes that are sheltered from the wind.

It's easy to get cavalier about these surface instabilities after dealing with persistent slabs problems all winter. When faced with these "manageable" problems, you may find yourself in consequential terrain where even a small slide can be every bit as dangerous as a big, bad persistent slab. Remember that the avalanche danger is only one part of the equation, the other components are your level of exposure to the avalanche hazard and the consequences of triggering a slide. Often our overconfidence at managing surface instabilities leads us into terrain where the exposure and consequences can be dangerously high.

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