Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is a solid MODERATE and tricky avalanche conditions exist. Human triggered avalanches involving a variety of problems are possible. Steep, wind drifted slopes right around tree line and above that face N-NE-E are the most likely areas for you to trigger an avalanche up to 18" deep. On upper elevation slopes, areas of wind drifted snow may be found on all aspects. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded, or rippled appearance, and changes in snow depth along ridgelines can indicate areas of wind loading. In some areas, a triggered wind slab has the potential to break into a buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper, and more dangerous avalanche. Persistent weak layers have been observed on slopes facing NW-N-S. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent snow stability analysis skills before considering getting on to steeper terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Winds during and since Wednesday's storm have created drifts up to 18" deep. These drifts have not been particularly sensitive but they do have a hollow feel to them in many areas. Their lack of sensitivity may lure you further downslope before they release, putting you in a much more dangerous situation. Most drifting has occurred right around treeline and above on slopes facing N-NE-E, but upper elevations have areas of drifted snow on all aspects. In some areas, triggered wind drifts have the potential to break into older, weak snow. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded, or rippled appearance, and changes in snow depth along ridgelines can indicate areas of wind loading. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes today.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    The snowpack has suddenly become complex. Many areas still have a deep and strong, underlying snowpack, while others have buried persistent weak layers that have come alive with the most recent snow load. Deep wind drifts are overlying loose, weak, buried surface snow on some northerly aspects. In addition, loose, sugary, faceted snow can be found in shallower, rocky areas just below treeline. And finally, I have observed a reactive, persistent weak layer on S-SE facing slopes. Though not unheard of, this is an uncommon concern. Spatial variability is the key phrase right now and when in doubt, steep slopes should be avoided.

Special Announcement

Are you looking to improve your avalanche skills? We are offering a Backcountry 101: Introduction to Avalanches class on February 15-16 in Moab. Click here to register. A huge thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course. Please visit them for all your winter backcountry needs.

Road Conditions: The road was plowed yesterday. Thank you Grand County!

Grooming report: Matt from Rim Tours groomed into Gold Basin and setting classic track on Wednesday. He rolled and packed the new snow up and over Geyser Pass.

Recent Activity

Some natural avalanche activity has occurred as a result of the new snow and winds though it has been isolated and spotty. In my travels yesterday I observed the remnants of a storm snow avalanche that likely ran during the peak of the storm on Wednesday. Details here.

I also observed a relatively small wind slab release from a repeat running path in Tele Gold that also likely ran sometime the night of Wednesday, Jan 21. Details here.

And finally, I observed an avalanche that was triggered during an increase in winds the night of January, 22. I know this to be the case because our party had passed through the area that afternoon and had not seen anything. This was actually a three-part slide that likely shared a connected starting zone. Details here.

All three of these avalanches initiated on N-NE aspects in areas of very steep, rocky terrain. The second two described averaged about 18" in depth and broke into old snow.

Photos are of the 3 part slide that occurred from an increase in winds the night of January 22.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 10" Base Depth in Gold Basin 46" Wind NW 5-15 mph Temp 20F

Weather: Above the blanket of fog, skies are partly cloudy in the mountains - the effect of a shortwave trough passing through to the north. Today look for partly sunny skies as the trough moves on, with light westerly winds and high temps near 30 degrees. High-pressure builds through the weekend with little chance for a break in the valley cloud layer so you better head to the mountains for a shot of sunshine!

Snowpack: Wednesday's snow has certainly improved conditions and excellent riding and turning exist where the wind hasn't gotten to it. However, the combination of new snow and wind over the past few days have contributed to a complex snowpack with tricky avalanche conditions. Deep drifts exist alongside wind-scoured areas while a surprising amount of terrain has been left untouched. In some areas, deep drifts are overlying shallow, weaker snow while in others, the underlying snowpack is relatively strong and deep. Spatial variability is the key phrase out there right now. A keen eye for wind loaded slopes, and a penchant for digging into the snow are essential skills to have before venturing into steep terrain.

Dave Garcia was out yesterday and submitted this observation.

Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').

Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').

NWS weather forecast

General Announcements

My radio interview on KZMU about the history of backcountry skiing in the La Sals, avalanche accidents, and unique snowpack has been saved in perpetuity. You can listen to it here.

Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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